关键词: 垂向混合产流模型, GLUE方法, 置信度, 预报区间, 不确定性分析

Abstract: Hydrological model can generalize the complicated hydrological phenomenon and processes, and the uncertainty of hydrological models is one of the important directions of the model research. Based on the 5 years' runoff data of Luohe River Basin in semi-humid area, we established a vertical mixed runoff hydrological model and analyzed its uncertainty by using GLUE method and combining with 5 relevant indicators. The results show that in uncertainty analysis and parameter optimization for the vertical mixed runoff model by GLUE method, under the confidence level of 95%, the model forecast interval coverage reaches 87.5%, the parameter Sand T are closed to 0, which means that the simulated data have great degree of symmetry.

Key words: vertical mixed runoff model, GLUE method, confidence level, forecast interval, uncertainty analysis