关键词: 重大危险源, 风险分析, 模糊理论模型, 三峡升船机

Abstract: The Three Gorges ship lift is in a stage of trial navigation, and systematric analysis on the major hazard sources is the key to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the ship lift. Firstly, we referred to the test data of Three Gorges ship lift in trial navigation stage to determine the types of accidents. Then a hazards' estimating system consisted of energy instability index and accident consequence severity were established based on the accident chain rule. At last, the fuzzy theory was used to determine the weights of assessment index and evaluation membership, so a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model is constructed for the major hazard sources. The analysis results showed that: (1) The comprehensive risk degree of the accident consequences severity system was greater than the energy instability of risk source; (2) The major hazard source system of Three Gorges ship lift risk was classed as three levels. It is needed to take corresponding prevention and control measures according to the three-level warning plan, to provide guarantee for the formal operation of the Three Gorges ship lift.

Key words: major hazard source, risk analysis, fuzzy theoretical model, Three Gorges Ship Lift