关键词: 地震易损性, 拱坝, 响应面法, 不确定性, 性能指标

Abstract: Based on response surface method (RSM), a new seismic fragility analysis method is proposed. Considering the uncertainties of material and earthquake, a series of samples for various materials and ground motions are designed using the central composite design method. The finite element model of arch dam is established by software Abaqus and the nonlinear dynamic time history calculations of the material-earthquake samples are carried out. Then response surface model is constructed taking the displacement of arch crown as the performance index. The probabilistic seismic demand model is formed by the Latin hypercube sampling and the seismic vulnerability curves that provides a theoretical basis for the performance-based seismic safety evaluation of arch dams can be obtained. Analysis results show that the established arch dam response surface models are accurate and reliable and that the response surface method is more efficient than traditional Monte Carlo simulation in seismic fragility analysis.

Key words: seismic fragility analysis, arch dam, RSM, uncertainties, performance index