关键词: 农业水资源承载力; 评价指标; 模糊综合评价; 滇中受水区;

Abstract: In order to find out the development and utilization degree of agricultural water resources in the central Yunnan Province,and to support the optimal allocation of water resources in the second phase of water diversion project in the central Yunnan Province,based on the analysis of the characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural water use in the central Yunnan Province,this paper constructed an evaluation index system of agricultural water resources carrying capacity,and used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the agricultural water carrying capacity of 35 counties(districts,cities)in the central Yunnan Province from 2012 to 2015.The results showed that the overall carrying capacity of agricultural water resources was low and the potential of agricultural water resources development was small.10 counties(districts,cities)were in oversaturated state,14 counties(districts,cities)were in saturated state,and 7 counties(districts,cities)still had certain bearing capacity state.The comprehensive scores of the whole water receiving area were not more than 0.5,indicating that the development and utilization potential of agricultural water resources was low.It was necessary to construct the second phase of water diversion project in the central Yunnan Province as soon as possible and vigorously promote water-saving technology and measures to realize the transformation from water consuming agriculture to water-saving agriculture,ensuring the sustainable development of regional agriculture.

Key words: agricultural water resources carrying capacity; evaluation index; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; water receiving area of central Yunnan Province;