关键词: 径流变化; 气候变化; 人类活动; 水文模型模拟法; 经验统计分析法; 累积量斜率变化率比较法; 彭冲涧小流域;

Abstract: Runoff changes in small watersheds are the combined result of climate change and human activities, it has become a current research hotspot to quantitatively evaluate the contribution rates of both to runoff change.This paper takes Pengchongjian small watershed as a research object to compare and analyze the calculation results of the runoff change contribution rates of hydrological modeling simulation method, empirical statistical analysis method and slope change ratio of accumulative quantity method, then summarize and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods.The results show that in spring, summer and annual scale, the contribution rates of precipitation changes calculated by hydrological modeling simulation method to runoff reduction are 61.00%,81.60% and 70.00%,respectively, which are larger than other two methods.While in the calculation process of slope change ratio of accumulative quantity method, the contribution rates of evapotranspiration are taken into account, and the contribution rates of precipitation change and vegetation restoration in spring, summer and annual scale are 50.88%,42.60%,31.26% and 16.23%,16.69%,26.10%,respectively, which are the smallest.

Key words: runoff change; climate change; human activities; hydrological modeling simulation method; empirical statistical analysis method; slope change ratio of accumulative quantity methods; Pengchongjian small watershed;