人民长江 ›› 2021, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (3): 76-80.doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2021.03.013

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气候突变点前后无锡站年际降水序列历史演化特征

秦建国, 吴朝明, 姚华, 任小龙, 尤征懿, 朱骊, 朱前维, 严维宁   

  • 出版日期:2021-03-28 发布日期:2021-04-23

Historical evolution features of annual precipitation series at Wuxi Weather Station before and after climate mutation

QIN Jianguo, WU Zhaoming, YAO Hua, REN Xiaolong, YOU Zhengyi, ZHU Li, ZHU Qianwei ,YAN Weining   

  • Online:2021-03-28 Published:2021-04-23

摘要: 为推动中长期预报工作,在发现气候突变点的基础上,采用历史演变法对无锡站年际降水序列的5种特征进行分析。研究表明:(1)由于认知上的缺陷,以前的序列分析方法不能真正完成其历史使命,必须与气候突变理论及相关辅助方法配合使用,才能弥补其分辨率较低的弱点;(2) 1978年前后无锡站年际降水过程线的5种特征差异显著,进一步证实了“气候成因不同特征不同”的猜想,也是气候突变点存在的有力证据;(3)无锡站的突变点可分为2个量级,分别为周期性突变点和气候突变点,这是旱涝演化的自然选择。本研究首次完成了气候突变的应用研究和单站单要素年际序列特征的精细化分析,为历史演变法注入了新的活力,也为太湖及周边地区开展中长期预报工作打下了坚实的基础。

关键词: 降水序列; 气候突变; 历史演变法; 单要素分析; 无锡站; 太湖;

Abstract: To promote the mid-long term climate prediction, we analyzed five types characteristics of annual precipitation series at Wuxi Weather Station using the historical evolution approach based on climate mutation detection.The result showed that:(1) The conventional series analysis techniques could hardly facilitate our understanding of the historical evolution due to cognitive limitations.These techniques should be combined with auxiliary methods to compensate for their low resolutions.(2) Significant differences were observed in the five types characteristics in the annual precipitation process line at Wuxi Weather Station around 1978.This finding confirmed the hypothesis that the “formative causes and characteristics of the climate were different around 1978” and served as potent evidence that the climate mutation occurred.(3) Two levels of mutation magnitude were observed at Wuxi Weather Station, namely, periodic mutation point and climate mutation point, which represented a natural selection of drought and flood evolution.In this study, the research on climate mutation and the refined analysis of the annual precipitation series characteristics of a single element at a single station were conducted for the first time.Our research findings shed light on the historical evolution approach and laid a solid basis for the mid-and long-term weather prediction in Taihu Lake and the surrounding regions.

Key words: precipitation sequence; climate mutation point; historical evolution method; single factor analysis; Wuxi Station; Taihu Lake;