关键词: 冰川湖泊; 溃决洪水; 气候变化; 申姆错冰湖; 西藏;

Abstract: Moraine lake outburst flood in high elevation regions is one of main natural hazards on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which are increasingly threatening the infrastructure and people's lives and property in the downstream area.Recently with warming of the climate, significant changes of glaciers have happened on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau including glaciers moving back, increased glacial meltwater, rapidly expanded moraine lakes, and increasing outburst probability of the moraine lakes.Based on the field survey data of 2017,combing with the literature data, topographic maps, remote sensing images and glacier inventory of China in different periods, the characteristics of Shenmucuo Glacier Lake were analyzed.And the outburst probability of Shenmucuo Glacier Lake was discussed by the evaluation system for glacier lake outburst.The results showed that:(1) During 1987～2016,the area of glacier lake expanded from 0.96 km2 to 1.87 km2,water-level raised 3.16 m, and the depth of glacier was 0.21 m.There existed instability factors and overflow ports for the dam of Shenmucuo Glacier Lake.The air temperature and precipitation of the basin also increased since 2000.(2) According to the indices and criteria of hazard assessment for glacier lake outburst floods in the Himalayas, the Shenmucuo Glacier Lake was assessed to be the potentially dangerous moraine lakes.The research results can provide reference for disaster prevention and water resources development and management in this area.

Key words: glacial lake; outburst flood; climate change; Shenmucuo Glacier Lake; Tibet;