关键词: 溃坝损失评估; 生命损失; 影响因子; 评估模型;

Abstract: Dam breach is a kind of disaster with low probability and high risk, so it is necessary to carry out a reliable method for life loss evaluation of dam breach for emergency response.However, due to the complex disaster-causing environments, the coupling effect of qualitative and quantitative factors on the life loss leads to the uncertainty and grayness of the disaster-causing factor system, which make it difficult to quantitatively evaluate the life loss.According to the analysis of 16 dam breach cases with statistical data of life loss, the functional relationship between risk population and life loss was established based on the log-log coordinates.Take into full consideration of the four major influence factors, such as the alarm time, severity of dam bursting flood, understanding of risk population to dam breach, and density of population at risk, as well as the seven secondary influence factors such as dam breach time, weather condition, distance from dam site, emergency plans, dam height, storage capacity and vulnerability of buildings, the functional relationship formula between risk population and life loss was modified.Based on these influence factors, a fast and efficient life loss assessment model was developed.And the rationality of this model was verified by the life loss data of 16 dam breach cases.In addition, the proposed model was utilized to evaluate the life loss of the breach of Sheyuegou Reservoir Dam in Xinjiang Region, and was compared with other commonly used models at home and abroad.The comparison results showed that the proposed model can better evaluate the life loss of Sheyuegou Reservoir Dam, thus further verified the adaptability and reliability of the proposed model.

Key words: loss evaluation on dam breach; life loss; influence factor; evaluation model;