人民长江 ›› 2021, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (5): 101-107.doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2021.05.016

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基于信息分解的滑坡变形稳定性评价及预警分析

邓小鹏   

  • 发布日期:2021-06-17

Landslide deformation stability evaluation and early warning analysis based on information decomposition

DENG Xiaopeng   

  • Published:2021-06-17

摘要: 为实现滑坡稳定性评价及临灾预警等级划分,以三峡库区八字门滑坡为例,结合滑坡变形监测成果,先利用双树复小波实现滑坡变形信息分解,以剔除滑坡变形数据的误差信息,保证后续分析数据的准确性;其次,利用尖点突变理论对滑坡稳定性进行评价;最后,利用极限位移准则和V/S分析分别进行滑坡现状预警和后期预警,以实现滑坡预警综合评价。实例分析结果表明:滑坡变形数据的确含有一定量的误差信息,对滑坡稳定性评价及预警分析具有较大影响;双树复小波能有效分离滑坡变形的有用信息和误差信息,但在信息分解过程中应注重参数优化筛选,以保证分离效果;八字门滑坡现状处于稳定状态,且滑坡后部稳定性相对更强,前部稳定性相对更弱;在预警分析方面,八字门滑坡现状预警等级为Ⅲ级,且其后期预警显示其变形仍将持续增加,进而建议对滑坡进行较高频率监测,并做好避让措施准备,以切实保证区内居民的生命财产安全。

关键词: 稳定性评价;预警分析;信息分解;双树复小波;尖点突变理论;V/S分析;八字门滑坡;三峡库区;

Abstract: In order to realize the landslide stability evaluation and early warning classification, taking the Bazimen landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, this paper first uses double tree complex wavelet to realize the decomposition of landslide deformation information, so as to eliminate the error information of landslide deformation data and ensure the accuracy of subsequent analysis data.Secondly, it uses the cusp catastrophe theory to realize the evaluation of landslide stability.Finally, it uses the limit displacement criterion and V/S analysis to achieve the status of landslide early warning and late warning.The case analysis results shows that the landslide deformation data does contain a certain amount of error information, which has a great influence on the landslide stability evaluation and early warning analysis.Double tree complex wavelet can effectively separate the useful information and error information of landslide deformation, but in the process of information decomposition, we should pay attention to parameter optimization and selection to ensure the separation effect.The current situation of the Bazimen landslide is in a stable state, and the stability at the rear part of landslide is relatively stronger, and the stability at front is relatively weaker.In terms of early warning analysis, it is known that the early warning level of the status quo of the Bazimen landslide is grade III,and its late warning shows that its deformation will continue to increase.Therefore, it is suggested that the landslide should be monitored at a high frequency, and the avoidance measures should be prepared to ensure the safety of life and property of residents in the region.

Key words: stability evaluation; early warning analysis; information decomposition; double tree complex wavelet; cusp catastrophe theory; V/S analysis; Bazimen landslide; Three Gorges Reservoir area;