关键词: 植被覆盖度;CMIP5;NDVI;降水;潜在蒸散发;

Abstract: Study on dynamic vegetation change is significant for understanding on global warming. Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS NDVI), precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data from 1982 to 2015 were used to construct a prediction model of vegetation dynamic. The model analyzed the influence of precipitation and evaporation on vegetation change in terms of water surplus and shortage. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models were applied to predict the future vegetation dynamic changes in China under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The results showed that the increment of NDVI in the RCP 8.5 scenario was larger than that in the RCP 4.5 scenario. Under RCP 4.5 scenario the average increment of NDVI in spring, summer, autumn and growing season were 0.02, 0.09, 0.11 and 0.07, respectively. Under RCP 8.5 scenario, in the future, the average increment of NDVI in spring, summer, autumn and growing season were 0.06, 0.09, 0.12 and 0.08, respectively. In the future, the vegetation coverage would increase in different river basins over China, especially the vegetation coverage would have a significant increasing in southwest rivers basins. However, the vegetation coverage would have a slight increasing in inland river basins in the future.

Key words: vegetation coverage; CMIP5; NDVI; precipitation; potential evapotranspiration