关键词: 用电量预测, 弹性系数, 相对产值, 灰色模型, 四川省

Abstract:

Balance between the power demand and supply is a core issue of the research on electricity market of Sichuan Province, which requires a scientific planning of power industry and a rational investment in power development. It is therefore essential to have a good understanding to power consumption law and an accurate estimation of power demand. Based on a brief analysis of power consumption of Sichuan Province since 2000 and the effects of economic and social development on the trend of power demand, its power consumption in the years of 2015 to 2020 is calculated through methods of electricity elasticity coefficient, consumption per unit of relative output, and gray model. According to the comparative analysis of the calculation results, three results of low, medium and high power consumption are obtained, which reflects the power consumption level of Sichuan province in the 13th Five-year Plan.

Key words: projection of power consumption, elasticity coefficient, relative output, gray model, Sichuan Province