关键词: 风险投资回报率, 改进VaR模型, Monte Carlo模拟, 系统动力学（SD）, 水电BT项目

Abstract:

To reasonably determine the return of constructor investment and ensure successful implementation of hydropower BT project, it is necessary to quantitatively research the return rate of venture capital. We identified venture factors for hydropower BT project constructor through system dynamics (SD) theory and quantified the venture value using AHP and triangularly distributed Monte Carlo simulation method. According to calculation method of total profit/total investment return rate and quoting risk return concept, we established a modified VaR model for the return rate of venture capital.Then we quantitatively analyzed the return rate of venture capital for a hydropower BT project by using the model.The results show that the return rate of venture capital calculated through setting the confidence coefficient of venture level is consistent with the later feedback of the BT project.

Key words: return rate of venture capital, modified VaR model, Monte Carlo simulation, system dynamic(SD), hydropower BT project