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所属专题: 金沙江雅鲁藏布江堰塞湖应急处置

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堰塞坝稳定性快速评价方法对比

钟启明,单熠博   

  • 出版日期:2019-04-28 发布日期:2019-04-28

Comparison of rapid evaluation methods for barrier dam’s stability

ZHONG Qiming, SHAN Yibo   

  • Online:2019-04-28 Published:2019-04-28

摘要: 由降雨、地震等灾害产生的堰塞坝坝体寿命短、溃决后危害大,其稳定性一直是学术界和工程界关注的热点,国内外学者已经提出了一系列基于地貌学指标的堰塞坝稳定性快速评价方法。为了对比分析各评价方法的优劣,通过收集世界各地具有实测参数的堰塞坝案例(共421例),分别采用错判率F、绝对准确率R、保守准确率Rc,以及基于3种准确率的综合准确率Rr对国内外常用的堰塞坝稳定性快速评价方法进行了对比分析。综合分析结果表明:DBI和Ls(AHV)的准确率较其他评价方法更高,且模型计算参数较易获取,具有更好的适应性和可靠性;但是堰塞坝稳定性的影响因素较多,前人提出的快速评价方法大多仅考虑坝体形态、流域面积、堰塞湖体积等地貌学因素,具有一定的局限性,今后应在地貌学指标的基础上,通过先进的测量手段快速获取堰塞坝的坝料特性和堰塞湖的水动力学参数,进一步提升堰塞坝稳定性快速评价方法的合理性。

关键词: 堰塞坝, 稳定性快速评价方法, 地貌学指标, 综合准确率; 白格堰塞湖; 加拉堰塞湖

Abstract: The barrier dams triggered by rainfall and earthquakes have the characteristics of short lifespan and widespread damage to human society. Therefore, great attentions have paid to the stability of barrier dams by the academic and engineering sectors. Up to now, a series of the rapid evaluation methods based on geomorphological indexes for barrier dams’ stability have been proposed at home and abroad. In order to compare the advantages and disadvantages of various evaluation methods, according to the collected 421 barrier dam cases that have measured data around the world, the comparison study is conducted. Herein, four indicators, the false rate (F), absolute accuracy rate (R), conservative accuracy rate (Rc), and comprehensive accuracy rate (Rr) are adopted for rapid evaluation method comparison of barrier dam’s stability. Based on the calculated results, the conclusions can be drawn that, the accuracy rate of DBI and Ls(AHV) methods are higher than the others, moreover, the input parameters of the two methods are easy to obtain and have better adaptability and reliability. However, the stability of barrier dams are influenced by many factors, the limitations of most proposed rapid evaluation methods lied on that they only focused on the geomorphological indexes, such as dam configuration, catchment area, dam volume, and so on. In the future research, in addition to geomorphological indexes, more attention should be paid on the obtainment of the following parameters, for instance, material feature and hydrodynamics indexes of barrier dam and lake, etc. In this way, the rationality of rapid evaluation method can be further enhanced.

Key words: barrier dams, rapid evaluation method of stability, geomorphological index, comprehensive accuracy rate, Baige barrier lake;Jiala barrier lake