关键词: 废水减排潜力, 减排潜力预测, SBM-Undesirable模型, 水资源目标, 资源经济

Abstract: In order to evaluate the difference of wastewater emission reduction potential among the provinces in China, and to analyze the feasibility of wastewater quantity and pollutant emission reduction targets in the 13th Five-Year Plan, SBM-Undesirable model was used to build wastewater emission reduction potential model, and the wastewater emission reduction potential of different provinces in China from 2012 to 2015 was studied. The results show that: ① There are great differences in wastewater emission reduction potentials among different provinces. The emission reduction potentials of Ningxia Hui Autonomous region, Jiangxi Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region are more than one third. ② Different provinces have different scale of wastewater reduction. Henan, Shandong and Zhejiang Provinces have larger scale of wastewater emission reduction. Heilongjiang and Shandong Provinces are the "primary entities reducing chemical oxygen demand pollutants". The reduction of ammonia nitrogen pollutants in Hunan and Henan Provinces deserves more attention. ③ The goal of reducing 10% chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen emissions by 2020 in the 13th Five-Year Plan is theoretically achievable, while the goal of reducing total wastewater discharge is more difficult to achieve.

Key words: reduction potential of wastewater emission, emission reduction potential forecast, SBM-Undesirable model, water resources target, resource economy