人民长江 ›› 2021, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (6): 212-217.doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2021.06.036

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水库移民家庭搬迁安置模式选择及影响因素研究

张丹,龚一莼,姚凯文   

  • 发布日期:2021-07-23

Research on selection of resettlement mode and its influencing factors for reservoir immigrant family

ZHANG Dan, GONG Yichun, YAO Kaiwen   

  • Published:2021-07-23

摘要: 水库移民安置模式的选择对移民在搬迁安置后的生产生活和发展前景具有深远影响。基于水库移民家庭的视角,探究影响搬迁安置模式选择的具体因素,依据行为经济学和农户行为理论,将移民假设为"行为人",从移民家庭决策时的能力与动机入手,构建了移民家庭安置模式选择行为的解释框架。以河南省出山店水库移民样本户为例,研究了移民家庭对农业安置(以就近后靠安置为例)与非农业安置(以异地城镇化安置)两类安置模式的选择行为,并运用logistic回归分析模型对理论假设进行检验。结果表明:移民家庭的恢复与适应能力、学习与认知能力,以及移民家庭受到的外部驱动和自身的心理预期都对移民搬迁安置模式的选择有显著影响。为此,提出了要分别在搬迁前、中、后期结合移民家庭安置模式选择的意愿和能力,研究制定更适宜于移民家庭个性化发展的安置规划和后期扶持政策等建议。

关键词: 水库移民; 移民家庭; 搬迁安置模式; 影响因素; logistic模型;

Abstract: The selection of resettlement mode has a profound impact on the production and living and development after reservoir resettlement.From the perspective of reservoir immigrant family, this paper explores the specific factors affecting the selection of resettlement mode.Based on behavioral economics and farmer behavior theory, this paper assumes that immigrans are “behavioral man”,and constructs an interpretation framework of resettlement mode selection behavior of reservoir resettlement family from their decision-making ability and motivation.Taking the sample immigrant households from Chushandian Reservoir in Henan Province as an example, this paper studies the selection behavior of reservoir resettlement family on two types of resettlement modes, the agricultural resettlement(taking local retreat resettlement as an example) and non-agricultural resettlement(taking urbanization resettlement as an example),and uses logistic regression analysis model to test the theoretical hypothesis.The results show that the ability of recovery and adaptation, learning and cognitive, as well as the external driving force and their own psychological expectations of reservoir resettlement family have a significant impact on the selection of resettlement mode.Therefore, this paper proposes that we should study and formulate resettlement planning and subsequent support policies that are more suitable for the individualized development of reservoir resettlement family according to willingness and ability for resettlement mode before, during and after the relocation.

Key words: reservoir immigrant; immigrant family; resettlement mode; influencing factors; logistic regression analysis model;