关键词: 暴雨洪涝灾害;风险区划;灰靶模型;GIS;陕南地区;

Abstract: Based on the statistical data of 28 counties in southern Shaanxi Province, the entropy weight method and grey target model were used to establish a risk assessment model of flood hazard.GIS spatial analysis technology was used to evaluate the spatial difference of flood hazard in southern Shaanxi province.The results showed that:(1) the southern Shaanxi Province as a whole was in high risk of flood hazard, and there were 10 counties belonging to the high/higher risk regions, especially the Zhashui county, Zhenba county and Zhenping county;(2) most of the region had low exposure of flood hazard-bearing body, but Chenggu county with developed economy and Hantai district with dense population had relatively strong disaster exposure;(3) the region with highly vulnerable hazard-formative environment was distributed in the Hanbin district, and other districts/counties were medium and low risk region;(4) the whole southern Shaanxi Province had poor/worse disaster prevention and reduction ability, only Hantai district and Hanbin district with developed economy were higher disaster prevention and reduction region.The comprehensive evaluation indicated that flood hazard risk in southern Shaanxi Province was relatively high, and 9 of the 28 counties were in the middle or higher risk level.

Key words: flood hazard; risk regionalization; grey target model; GIS; southern Shaanxi Province;