关键词: 长期降水预测; 冬季海温; 北半球500 hPa位势高度; 北极海冰; 奇异值分解; 长江流域;

Abstract: The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is a big problem in China′s social development, and long-term precipitation prediction plays an important role in the rational allocation and utilization of water resources.In view of the complex mechanism of precipitation in the Changjiang River Basin, we analyzed the key relationship between precipitation in the main flood season of the Changjiang River Basin and three climatic factors, namely, winter sea surface temperature, 500 hPa geopotential height in the northern hemisphere and Arctic sea ice.On this basis, the singular value decomposition(SVD) method was used to construct a preliminary precipitation prediction model and prediction correction model.The optimized prediction model(SSVDF) was obtained by combining the two models, and its effect was verified.The results showed that the prediction method based on multiple climatic factors was more effective than prediction method based on single factor.SVD correction method could significantly eliminate the prediction error of the original statistical model.The SSVDF model could effectively predict the rainfall precipitation in the river system of the Changjiang River Basin during the main flood season, and it could also predict the spatial distribution of precipitation anomalies in the basin.

Key words: long-term precipitation prediction; sea surface temperature in winter; 500 hPa geopotential height in the northern hemisphere; Arctic sea ice; singular value decomposition(SVD); Changjiang River Basin;