人民长江 ›› 2021, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (8): 30-37.doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2021.08.005

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基于主成分分析与模糊聚类的洪涝治理分区研究

沈瑞,曹秀清,蒋尚明, 金菊良,何飘   

  • 发布日期:2021-09-27

Study on flood defense division based on coupling of principal component analysis and fuzzy clustering

SHEN Rui, CAO Xiuqing, JIANG Shangming, JIN Juliang, HE Piao   

  • Published:2021-09-27

摘要: 为揭示淮北平原区洪涝灾害的地域性差异,因地制宜地制定防灾减灾措施,从气象、下垫面及人类活动等角度选取了洪涝相关指标,基于主成分分析与模糊聚类耦合的途径,开展了洪涝治理分区研究。研究结果表明:淮北平原区各洪涝指标存在着显著的空间分布特征,根据其特征,可将洪涝治理划分为5个区域,其中,Ⅰ区位于淮北平原区的东北部,属于洪涝频发地带,应提升自排能力;Ⅱ区位于中部偏东北区,该区的部分流域在提升其自排能力的同时也可适当提升抽排能力;Ⅲ区位于中部偏西南区,该区域的洪涝治理应以提升局部重点区的自排能力为主;Ⅳ区位于西南部,局部重点区应尽可能提升抽排能力;Ⅴ区位于沿淮地区,应采用以抽排为主的方式适当提升重点区的排涝标准,同时要充分考虑排涝标准的提高对淮河干流河道行洪的影响。治理分区结果可体现各指标分布的空间组合特性,研究中采用的指标选取与分区方法可为区域洪涝治理措施的制定提供理论依据。

关键词: 洪涝治理分区; 主成分分析; 模糊聚类分析; 淮北平原区;

Abstract: In order to reveal the regional differences of flood disasters in the Huaibei Plain and formulate disaster prevention and mitigation measures according to local conditions, we conduct area division for flood disasters control.The division method is based on coupling of principal component analysis and fuzzy clustering analysis, selecting factors from the aspect of meteorology, underlying surface and human activities.The results show that the spatial distribution characteristics of flood-related factors are obvious in the Huaibei Plain.According to the characteristics, the whole plain can be divided into 5 subregions, area-Ⅰis located in the northeast of Huaibei Plain, where is a flood-prone areas, and the self-drainage capability should be improved in this area; area-Ⅱ is located in northeast of central area, where self-drainage and pumping capacity should be improved at the same time; area-Ⅲ is located in southwest of central area, where self-drainage capacity in some local key areas should be enhanced; area-Ⅳ is located in southwest, where pumping capacity in local key areas should be improved; area-Ⅴ is located along the Huaihe River region, where the drainage standards of key regions should be improved appropriately by means of pumping, while the impact of raising drainage capacity on the flood in the mainstream of Huaihe River should be fully considered.The results of division can objectively reflect the spatial combination characteristics of each factor.And the selection of index and zoning method used in the study can provide a theoretical basis for the establishment of regional flood defense policies.

Key words: flood defense division; principal component analysis; fuzzy clustering analysis; Huaibei Plain;