关键词: 长江经济带;社会经济;“四水”;系统动力学模型;模型构建;

Abstract: Based on the coupling relationship between four-water (water resources, water environment, water ecology, water disasters) and socio-economics, a system dynamics model for four-water and socio-economic system was constructed using the four-water and socio-economic data of Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008~2019, and some parameters of four-water and social development of Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2035 were simulated and predicted based on the current development trend and some plans. The study results show that under the conditions of maintaining the current development trend and planning, the GDP of Yangtze River Economic Belt is expected to be 2.83 times that of 2019 by 2035. Water eco-environment conditions would be improved, compared to 2019 wetland area, average phytoplankton and zooplankton diversity index, COD, NH3-N, and total phosphorus emissions decreasing by 15%, 26%, 8%, 10% and 11% respectively in 2035, but total wastewater emissions increasing by 27% compared to 2019. Water disaster risk would reduce, and direct economic losses due to floods and droughts as a percentage of regional GDP would decrease by 0.18 percentage points compared to 2019. The total water supply and water consumption would increase by 28.8 billion m3 and 31 billion m3 respectively, the supply and demand would basically be balanced by 2035. Finally, in response to the simulation results, four suggestions were made, including strengthening the construction of sewage treatment facilities, adjusting the industrial structure, strengthening scientific research and innovation, and implementing water conservation actions.

Key words: Yangtze River Economic Belt; socio-economics; four-water; system dynamics (SD) model; model construction