人民长江 ›› 2023, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (5): 47-52.doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2023.05.006

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基于知识粒度-属性重要度的水资源可持续利用评价——以北京市为例

门宝辉;吴明明;刘灿均;刘焕龙;   

  • 发布日期:2023-06-05

Evaluation on sustainable utilization of water resources in Beijing City based on knowledge granularity and attribute importance

MEN Baohui WU Mingming LIU Canjun LIU Huanlong   

  • Published:2023-06-05

摘要: 北京市人口密集而区域水资源量有限,水资源的不合理开发利用曾一度导致地下水超采、水环境污染等问题,如何评价和促进北京市水资源利用的可持续性是缓解北京市水资源问题的基础。为分析北京市水资源利用现状,根据社会-经济-生态环境复合系统建立评价指标体系,采用知识粒度和属性重要度方法确定指标权重,基于集对分析和属性识别法定量评价了北京市2004~2020年水资源利用的可持续性,对比了不同权重下的评价结果并分析可利用水资源量对可持续性的影响。结果表明:基于知识粒度和属性重要度的赋权方法在评价中具有良好的适用性,不同方法所得评价结果虽略有差异,但整体上体现出的趋势性基本一致,均反映了北京市近17 a来水资源可持续利用水平逐年提高,呈现良性发展态势。同时,可利用水资源量是影响北京市水资源利用可持续性的重要因素,而南水北调中线工程为保证北京市可利用水资源量提供了有利条件。研究成果对北京市未来水资源保护和发展相关政策和规划的制定具有一定的参考价值。

关键词: 水资源;可持续利用;粗糙集;知识粒度;属性重要度;北京市;

Abstract: Beijing City has a dense population and limited regional water resources.Unreasonable development and utilization of water resources once led to groundwater overexploitation, water environment pollution and other problems.How to evaluate and promote the sustainability of water resources utilization is a basis to alleviating the water resources problems in Beijing City.Therefore, in order to analyze the current situation of water resources utilization in Beijing City, this paper establishes an evaluation index system according to the social-economic-ecological environment composite system, determines the index weight by using the knowledge granularity and attribute importance method, then quantitatively evaluates the sustainability of water resources utilization in Beijing City from 2004 to 2020 based on the set pair analysis and attribute identification method.Based on the results, we compare the evaluation results under different weights and analyze the impact of available water resources on the sustainability.The results show that the weight determination method based on knowledge granularity and attribute importance is feasible in the evaluation of water resources sustainable utilization in Beijing City.In addition, the overall level of sustainable water use is getting better and better year by year.Although the results obtained by different evaluation methods are slightly different, the overall trend is basically the same.The amount of available water resources is an important factor affecting the sustainability of water resources utilization in Beijing City, and the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project provides favorable conditions for ensuring the amount of available water resources in Beijing City.This study has certain reference values for the formulation of policies and plans related to water resources protection and exploration in Beijing City in the future.

Key words: water resources; sustainable utilization; rough set; knowledge granularity; attribute importance; Beijing City;