关键词: 新型城镇化;水资源承载力;耦合协调度;空间引力模型;长江经济带;

Abstract: To promote the coordinated development of regional urbanization and water resource system in the Changjiang River Economic Belt, the dynamic evolution characteristics and spatial connection structure of new urbanization and water resources carrying capacity system in the Changjiang River Economic Belt from 2005～2020 were empirically analyzed by using the entropy weight TOPSIS model, coupling coordination model and spatial gravity model.The results showed that:(1) From the perspective of time series, the coupling and coordination degree of new urbanization and water resource carrying capacity in the Changjiang River Economic Belt shows a continuous upward trend from 2005～2020.And the growth rate of new urbanization index is much faster than that of water resource carrying capacity.(2)From the perspective of spatial pattern, the degree of coupling coordination presentsaspatial difference pattern of midstream < upstream < downstream, while from the perspective of the provincial region, the coupling coordination development level shows a spatial attenuation pattern of “high in the northeast and low in the southwest”.(3) The spatial connection of regional coupling and coordination is becoming closer, and the overall spatial network density shows aspatial distribution characteristics of “dense in the east and sparse in the west”.The spatial connection pattern of coupling coordination is relatively stable, and the three major divisions also show a significant spatial heterogeneity, among which Shanghai, Jiangxi Province and Chongqing city have become the core growth poles and radiation-driven provinces in the eastern, central and western regions, respectively.The research results can provide a reference for the improvement of water resource carrying capacity, water environmentand the overall layout of urban development in this region.

Key words: new urbanization; water resources carrying capacity; coupling coordination degree; spatial gravity model; Changjiang River Economic Belt;