关键词: 水资源可持续利用；三维水生态足迹模型；脱钩模型；对数均值迪氏指数法；时空分布；云南省

Abstract: Yunnan Province is a crucial green ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Accurately assessing the sustainability of water resource utilization in Yunnan Province is of great significance for the scientific management and long-term development of its water ecosystem. This study employed a three-dimensional water ecological footprint model to measure the water ecological footprint of Yunnan Province from 2007 to 2022. A decoupling model was used to evaluate the decoupling effect between water resource utilization and economic growth, while the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method was applied to identify the driving forces behind recent changes in the water ecological footprint. The results indicated that: ① The water ecological footprint in Yunnan Province exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 2007 to 2022, with agriculture as the dominant contributor accounting for approximately 69%; ② The water ecological footprint showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west; ③ Water ecological carrying capacity was closely linked to the ecological surplus or deficit, with many regions showing a water ecological surplus; ④ The breadth of the water ecological footprint remained relatively stable, indicating steady water consumption and a generally sustainable pattern of water resource use; ⑤ The decoupling between water resource utilization and economic development was favorable, showing both strong and weak decoupling states; ⑥ Economic effects played a positive driving role in water resource consumption, while technological effects played a negative driving role in water resource consumption. These findings can provide valuable insights for improving the human-water relationship in Yunnan Province, and supporting the coordinated, high-quality development of regional water resource utilization and socioeconomic growth.

Key words: sustainable use of water resources; three-dimensional water ecological footprint model; decoupling model; Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method; spatial and temporal distribution; Yunnan Province