关键词: 雨潮组合, 风险分析, Copula函数, 沿海流域, 浙江省

Abstract: Under the interacted influence of heavy rain and river tide, the flood control and drainage problems in coastal areas are very complicated, and the traditional univariate hydrological frequency analysis method can not solve the complicated problems. In this paper, the two-dimensional copula function is used to calculate the combination probability of rainstorm and tide level. Based on co-occurrence risk rate, conditional risk rate and waterlogging risk rate, the two-dimensional copula function is applied to the rainfall- tide encounter analysis of several coastal basins in Zhejiang Province. The results show that the copula function is appropriate to simulate the joint distribution of rainfall and tide in coastal basin of Zhejiang Province. It can calculate the risk rate accurately and quantitatively under different combination of rainfall and tide, and the results are basically consistent with the results of the traditional flood-tide encounter analysis, indicating that the copula function method has high reliability and practicability.

Key words: combination of rainfall and tide, risk analysis, copula function, coastal areas, Zhejiang Province