关键词: 防洪调度; 洪水预报; 梯级水库; 乌江流域;

Abstract: At present,the urgent problem of the river basin flood control is how to improve the water level prediction accuracy that affected by cascade reservoirs.This article was based on the flood forecasting and dispatching of cascade reservoirs in the middle and lower reaches of Wujiang River Basin.The new model of forecasting-dispatching-forecasting was proposed,which considered the cooperation among the water administration authorities,power dispatching enterprises,power generation enterprises and hydrology survey departments.This new model follows a cyclic pattern with “forecasting-dispatching-forecasting”,so it can be corrected in real time.If the prediction error is small,the effect of the prediction error can be eliminated by reserved flood storage capacity.If the forecast error is large,on the basis of reserved flood storage capacity,the interval flood forecasting should be timely revised and the operation schemes of related reservoirs should be adjusted.Besides,the flood forecasting of related stations should be revised.The application of the new model could prolong the flood forecast period and improve the flood forecasting accuracy of the main hydrological stations in the Wujiang River Basin,which could provide strong technical support for river basin flood control.

Key words: flood dispatching; flood forecast; cascade reservoirs; Wujiang River;