关键词: 降水和径流预报产品, 中长期预报, 梯级水库群, 蓄水调度, 枯水情景, 长江上游

Abstract: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has released seasonal GloFAS Seasonal runoff and SEAS5 precipitation ensemble forecast products in recent years. The runoff forecast of six control stations and the areal precipitation forecast of four sub-areas in the upper Yangtze River are selected. The prediction ability of the two products for dry scenario in the upper Yangtze River reservoirs impounding period are evaluated by calculating and analyzing the indicators such as AUC, ROCSS and reliability. The evaluation results show that the two products could predict the occurrence of dry scenario one month in advance, and the products tend to over-predict the possibility of dry scenario events, which needs to be considered in practice. This study can provide a scientific basis and technical support for reservoir impounding operation based on medium and long-term forecast in the upper Yangtze River basin.

Key words: product of forecasting of precipitation and runoff, medium and long-term forecast；cascade reservoirs；impounding operation；dry scenario, upper Yangtze River