人民长江 ›› 2021, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (11): 22-27.doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2021.11.004

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基于DEA模型的陕西省地质灾害防治投入效果评价

李惠, 滕宏泉   

  • 发布日期:2021-12-24

Research on efficiency evaluation of geo-disasters prevention investment in Shaanxi Province based on DEA model

LI Hui, TENG Hongquan   

  • Published:2021-12-24

摘要: 随着国家对地质灾害防治的高度重视,地质灾害防治投入力度逐年加大,评价地质灾害防治投入效果可为开展有效的地质灾害防治工作提供科学依据。在分析陕西省地质灾害现状的基础上,基于DEA-BC2模型对2008~2018年地质灾害防治进行效果评价,并对综合效率值、技术有效性和规模收益进行分析,再运用层次分析法比较,提出针对陕西省地质灾害防治的重要措施。研究结果表明:2008,2011年和2012年处于综合效率前沿,说明地质灾害防治投入取得了较好的效果;其余年份地质灾害防治投入产出结构欠佳,需进一步改善投入规模或提升技术水平。在防治手段上,论证了地质灾害监测预警、气象预警、人为工程活动的有效监管以及地质灾害调查评价等是提升陕西省地质灾害防治水平的重要措施。研究结果可为今后加强地质灾害防治提供参考与借鉴。

关键词: 地质灾害防治;DEA-BC2模型;效果评价;陕西省;

Abstract: As the state attaches great importance to the prevention of geological disasters, the investment of geological disasters prevention has been increasing year by year.Evaluating the investment effect of geological disaster prevention can provide scientific basis for the effective geological disaster prevention work.Based on the analysis of the current situation from 2008 to 2018,we evaluated the efficiency of geological disaster prevention in Shaanxi Province by DEA-BC2 model.Through the analysis of the comprehensive efficiency value, technical effectiveness and scaled return, we proposed several effective measures for the prevention of geological disasters by the analytic hierarchy process.The results showed that the year of 2008,2011 and 2012 were at the forefront of comprehensive efficiency, indicating that the investment in geological disaster prevention had achieved better results.In other years, the input-output structure of local disaster prevention and control was poor, and it needed to further improve the input scale or improve the technical level.In terms of prevention measures, it demonstrated that geological disaster monitoring and early warning, weather early warning, effective supervision of engineering activities and geological disaster investigation were effective measures to raise the level of geological disaster prevention in Shaanxi Province.The research results can provide reference to strengthen the geological disasters prevention in the future.

Key words: geological disaster prevention; DEA-BC2 model; efficiency evaluation; Shaanxi Province;