关键词: 洪水预报模型;平原区河系;滁河流域;2020年大洪水;

Abstract: For flood forecasts in plain river systems under complex hydraulic conditions,traditional hydrological and hydraulic models have problems such as high demand for modeling data,complex processes,and poor simulation results. In this paper,by taking the plain river system as a virtual reservoir model,we proposed a practical flood forecasting model for the river system in the plain area,in which the Xin'an River model,the segmented Muskingen model and the reservoir flood regulation model were combined. The Xiaoqiao Station in the Chuhe River Basin was selected as the research object,and the model was calibrated and tested with flood samples from 2010 to 2020,and the flood in 2020 was taken to explore application. The results show that the flood forecasting model has low data limitation and simple modeling process,and can better simulate the water level process of the river system in the plain area,which can provide reference for river hydrological forecasting in plain areas.

Key words: flood forecasting model; river system in the plain area; Chuhe River Basin; extraordinary flood of Changjiang in 2020;