关键词: 地质灾害;管道安全;风险评价;灰色关联分析;信息量模型;中缅天然气管道;

Abstract: The China-Myanmar natural gas pipeline, as a strategic natural gas import channel in the southwest of China, faces threats of geological disasters along the pipeline. Taking the area along the China-Myanmar natural gas pipeline as the research object, based on the investigation results of geological disasters along the pipeline after flood season from 2019 to 2020, and combined with the geological environment conditions along the pipeline, a regional geological disaster risk assessment index system is established. According to the inflection point of the cumulative occurrence frequency curve of geological disasters under each evaluation index as the classification basis, the status of each index factor is classified. Finally, the grey relational analysis is used to calculate the weight, and the weighted information value model is used to complete the risk assessment of geological disasters along the China-Myanmar natural gas pipeline. The results show that high risk, medium risk and low risk area respectively account for 30.73%，22.43%，46.84% of the total study area. The ROC curve shows that the weighted information model can achieve the accuracy of 80.03% for the evaluation, the evaluation result is ideal. The research results can provide an important reference for the protection of geological disasters in the area along the pipeline.

Key words: geological disasters; pipeline safety; risk assessment; grey relational analysis; information value model; China-Myanmar natural gas pipeline