关键词: 城市供水;供需网络;情势分析;预报预警;供水调度预演;

Abstract: A sustained, stable and good water supply environment is a basis for ensuring the quality of people's life. Focusing on the current problems of decentralized urban water supply management, weak prediction ability of water supply dispatching and low efficiency of offline consultation, taking Ningbo City for instance, we studied dynamic prediction and early warning of urban water supply. The results show that combining digital technology with water conservancy professional model, such as comprehensive aggregation and sharing of water supply information, researches on reservoir-water plant supply and demand forecast and early warning model, and establishing a real-time water supply dispatching analysis platform, we can support the accurate analysis of water supply dispatching under the drought situations, dynamic prediction of available water supply duration, and visual preview of water supply dispatching, which effectively ensures the regional water supply safety. The research results can provide construction guidance for the overall improvement of urban water supply dispatching capacity.

Key words: urban water supply; supply-demand network; situation analysis; forecast and early warning; rehearsal of water supply dispatching