关键词: 水资源承载力;农业高质量发展;CRITIC权重法;耦合协调;空间自相关;

Abstract: Under the current contradiction between the increasing tension of water resource utilization and the dramatic increase of agricultural water demand, it is crucial to achieve the coordinated development between water resource carrying capacity and high-quality agriculture development.To analyze the coupling coordination level and spatio-temporal characteristics of China's water resources carrying capacity and high-quality agricultural development, this paper used the CRITIC weighting method to measure the water resources carrying capacity and high-quality development level of agriculture of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)(Hong Kong, Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province are not included in this study) in China from 2011 to 2020,as well as to further measure the coupling and coordination degree of the two elements.The results showed that:(1) Water resources carrying capacity and high-quality development level of agriculture in China have increased by 10.24% and 16.49% from 2011 to 2020,respectively, showing an overall upward trend;(2) The coupling and coordination degree of water resources carrying capacity and high-quality agricultural development in China has increased by 65.517% during the research period, with different degrees of spatial and temporal differences among regions, with higher coupling and coordination levels in the northeast, followed by the central and western regions, and lower than the national average in the east.The global Molan index has dropped from 0.349 to 0.188.The coupling and coordination between water resource carrying capacity and high-quality development of agriculture in China are closely related, but its spatial dependence shows a trend of change from strong to weak.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity; high-quality agriculture development; CRITIC weighting method; coupling and coordination; spatial auto-correlation;