人民长江 ›› 2024, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (2): 1-8.doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.02.001

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三峡水库对城陵矶防洪补偿控制水位研究Ⅱ——风险分析与运用方案

邹强 胡挺 饶光辉 何小聪 肖扬帆   

  • 收稿日期:2023-03-01 出版日期:2024-02-28 发布日期:2024-03-04

Controlled water level of Three Gorges Reservoir carrying out compensation dispatch to Chenglingji Area Ⅱ:risk analysis and operation scheme

ZOU Qiang HU Ting RAO Guanghui HE Xiaocong XIAO Yangfan   

  • Received:2023-03-01 Online:2024-02-28 Published:2024-03-04

摘要: 乌东德、白鹤滩水库投运后,长江上游水库群联合防洪调度为进一步提高三峡水库对城陵矶防洪补偿控制水位创造了有利条件。为提高三峡水库对城陵矶防洪补偿控制水位,针对金沙江下游梯级防洪库容投入运用条件,基于三峡坝址不同典型年的不同频率设计洪水,开展了荆江防洪和库区回水风险分析,提出了金沙江下游梯级配合三峡水库的等比例分级拦蓄方式,在确保荆江及库区防洪安全的前提下,提出了三峡水库对城陵矶防洪补偿控制水位优化运用方案,给出了金下梯级预留防洪库容与三峡水库对荆江防洪库容的等效关系。研究结果表明:提出的等比例分级拦蓄方式综合了拦量和削峰两种模式,有效利用了金下梯级防洪库容,调度效果最好;提出的水位优化运用方案具备较好的防洪减灾效果,丰富完善了长江上游水库群联合防洪调度方案,可进一步减少中下游超额洪量。研究成果可为长江水库群实际洪水调度提供技术支撑和决策参考。

关键词: 防洪补偿;控制水位;风险分析;荆江河段;城陵矶地区;金沙江下游;三峡水库;

Abstract: The joint operation of reservoir groups in the upper reaches of Changjiang River has created favorable conditions for further raising the flood control compensation level of Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR) to Chenglingji Area after the construction and operation of Wudongde Reservoir and Baihetan Reservoir.To raise the controlled water level of Three Gorges Reservoir carrying out compensation dispatch to Chenglingji Area, aiming at the operation conditions of the flood control storage capacity of the four reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River, as well as the design floods of different frequencies in different typical years at the Three Gorges dam site, risk analysis on Jingjiang Reach and reservoir backwater are performed, so an equal proportional and graded storage mode for cascade reservoirs on lower Jinsha River assisting TGR is proposed.Moreover, under the premise that the flood control risks of Jingjiang Reach and reservoir backwater are controllable, an optimal scheme for flood control compensation level with different flood control capacities of cascade reservoirs in the lower reaches of Jinsha River is present, and the equivalent relationship between the reserved flood control capacity is provided.The research results demonstrated that the proposed equal proportion graded storage mode integrates the two modes of storing quantity and peak shaving, effectively using the flood control storage capacity of cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River with the best effect.The proposed optimal scheme has better flood control and disaster reduction effects, which can further reduce the excess flood volume in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River.The research results can provide technical support for the actual Changjiang River flood control and decision-making reference.

Key words: flood control compensation; control level; risk analysis; Jingjiang Reach; Chenglingji area; lower reaches of Jinsha River; Three Gorges Reservoir;