人民长江

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跨区域水电工程项目群风险多级模糊综合云评价

江新 徐平 吴园莉 朱沛文   

  • 出版日期:2015-09-15 发布日期:2015-09-15

Risk evaluation of inter-regional hydropower projects by multilevel fuzzy comprehensive model and cloud model

  • Online:2015-09-15 Published:2015-09-15

摘要: 跨区域水电项目群工程量大、环境复杂、风险事故极易发生。而现有的水电项目群风险评价方法在处理随机性、模糊性和评价主体主观性等方面存在不足,为此,提出了基于云模型改进的跨区域水电项目群风险多级模糊综合评价方法。首先,系统分析了风险因素,并构建了多级模糊评价指标体系;其次,利用云模型算法改进的多级模糊评价方法,建立风险评语集云模型、风险因子权重云模型、隶属度云模型以及综合评价结果云模型;最后,用所建模型对某水电站左右岸泄洪和放空建筑物工程项目风险进行评价,结果表明该评价方法具有一定的可行性和实用性。

关键词: 云模型, 风险评价, 多级模糊综合评价, 跨区域水电项目群

Abstract:

The inter-regional hydropower project is characterized as large engineering quantity, complex environment and prone to risk and accident. To overcome the deficiencies of the current risk-assessment methods in hydropower projects such as randomness, fuzziness and subjectivity of evaluation body, we propose the improved multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model on the basis of cloud model to assess the risk of the inter-regional hydropower projects. We analyzed the risk factors systematically and established the multilevel fuzzy evaluation index system, which was improved by the cloud model. The corresponding cloud models of remark set, risk factor weight, membership degree and comprehensive evaluation results are constructed. The established method was used to assess the risk of the flood discharging projects on both banks of a hydropower station, and the assessing result has some applicability and practical meanings

Key words: cloud model, risk assessment, multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, inter-regional hydropower project