关键词: 设计暴雨, 多模式耦合, 气候变化, 赣江流域

Abstract:

The output data of six General Circulation Models under SRA1B, SRA2 and SRB1 emission scenarios were downscaled by statistical downscaling model (LARS-WG) to predict the change of design rainstorms with different return periods of Ganjiang River Basin during three future periods. The results indicated that the reliable frequency analysis results can be obtained from rainstorm series generated by LARS-WG and the application of Bayesian Model Average can diminish the uncertainty of the estimation. Design rainstorms tend to decrease relative to the baseline period in most stations of the basin and the variation ranges change with return periods. The stations which exhibit overall increase or partial increase of design rainstorm are located in upper and middle reaches, while the rest stations which exhibit decrease are located in middle and lower reaches. Under the impact of future climate change, the design rainstorm in Ganjiang River Basin will be overall overestimated in accordance with our current standard.

Key words: design rainstorm, multi-model ensemble, climate change, Ganjiang River Basin