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三峡库区典型支流水质模型及其参数敏感性分析

李亚军,程瑶,王雨春   

  • 出版日期:2017-08-28 发布日期:2017-08-28

Parameter sensitivity analysis of water quality model for typical tributary in TGP reservoir area

LI Yajun, CHENG Yao, WANG Yuchun   

  • Online:2017-08-28 Published:2017-08-28

摘要: 参数敏感性分析旨在确定水质模型中各参数对模型精度的影响,在利用水质模型分析时,可根据参数的敏感性精简模型中的大量参数。以三峡库区支流草堂河为例,建立相应生态动力学模型,并对模型结果进行验证,再进一步采用扰动分析法对模型中26个参数的敏感性进行了计算分析。研究结果表明:生化参数中浮游植物的最大生长率(R0)、适应温度下限(T1)、死亡线性系数(RDIE1)、光照最低值(IOPT)、消光系数(KC)、遮光系数(KW)及磷酸盐半饱和系数(KPO4)是敏感性最高的参数,其他参数敏感性相对较低;对同一参数而言,其敏感性亦会随季节改变发生变化,其敏感性一般在冬春季较低,夏秋季较高。

关键词: 水体环境学, 水质模型, 敏感性分析, 生化参数, 草堂河, 三峡库区

Abstract: The purpose of parameter sensitivity analysis of water quality model is to identify the parameter importance to the modeling accuracy and help selecting the high sensitivity parameters from multiple parameters for modeling analysis. In this paper, an ecological dynamic model was established and verified for the Caotang River, one tributary in TGP reservoir area, and the parameter sensitivity of the model was analyzed by the perturbation method. The sensitivity analysis of 26 parameters in the model shows that the maximum growth rate of phytoplankton, optimum lower bound of optimal temperature of phytoplankton, mortality linear coefficient of phytoplankton, lowest light intensity, background light extinction coefficient, shading coefficient, half-saturation constant of phosphorous uptake are the most sensitive parameters and other parameters are lower sensitive. For the same parameter, the sensitivity changes in different seasons, generally, lower in summer and spring and higher in autumn and winter.

Key words: water environmentology, water quality model, parameter sensitivity analysis, biochemical parameter, Caotang River, TGP reservoir area