关键词: 泥沙预报; 沙峰传播; 排沙调度; 预报体系; 三峡水库; 2020年长江洪水;

Abstract: In recent years, the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR) has carried out operation of sand releasing in flood season for many times, and has acquired favorable effect. Sediment forecast is the key step in the operation of sediment discharge. Hence, we constructed a sediment forecast system to forecast the sediment peak transport in TGR. This system combines rainfall and sediment yield theory, flow-sediment relationship and 1-D flow-sediment mathematical model, on the basis of real-time sediment monitoring technology. We adopted the poposed system to forecast sediment peak transport progress when a large amount of water and sediment flowed into TGR during flood season in 2020. The forecast results showed that forecast values of sediment peak were basically consistent with the measured values, that was, overall accuracy of sediment forecast results were relatively high. The sediment forecast system provided an important technical support for operation of sediment discharge of TGR.

Key words: sediment forecast; sediment peak transport; operation of sediment discharge; forecast system; Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR); Changjiang River flood in 2020;