人民长江 ›› 2020, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (12): 141-148.doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2020.12.026

所属专题: 2020年长江流域洪水防御专辑

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长江水工程现状条件下防御1954年洪水联合调度策略

张潇, 李玉荣, 牛文静   

  • 发布日期:2021-01-14

Strategy of water projects joint operation program on upper-middle reaches of Changjiang River for controlling 1954 flood under current conditions

ZHANG Xiao, LI Yurong, NIU Wenjing   

  • Published:2021-01-14

摘要: 长江上中游水库群作为流域防洪调度的“主力军”,近年来防洪效益显著。蓄滞洪区作为流域综合防洪体系的最后一道防线,是妥善安置长江超额洪量的兜底手段。在梳理长江上中游控制性水库与中下游蓄滞洪区防洪目标与任务的基础上,结合规范规程和当前实时预报调度水平提出了适用于现状条件下防御1954年洪水的水工程联合调度策略,通过构建的水工程调度一体化模型,模拟调度了1954年洪水全过程,并对模拟效果进行了分析。结果表明:基于制定的长江上中游水工程联合调度策略,在应对1954年洪水模拟调度中,长江中下游总分洪量为228亿m3,各主要控制站水位基本有效控制在目标水位附近或以下,模拟效果较好。该策略可为长江流域水库群与蓄滞洪区联合调度提供参考。

关键词: 联合调度; 蓄滞洪区; 1954年洪水; 长江流域水库群; 防洪模拟调度;

Abstract: As the "major force" of flood control regulation, the reservoirs in middle and upper reaches of Changjiang River have gained remarkable flood control benefits in recent years. As the last defense line of the comprehensive flood control system, the flood storage and detention area is the final means to properly arrange the excess flood volume of the Changjiang River. On the basis of sorting out the flood control objectives and tasks of the controlling reservoirs on the upper and middle reaches of the Changjiang River and the flood storage and detention areas in the middle and lower reaches, combined with the standard regulations and the current real-time forecast and operation level, a joint operation strategy of water projects is proposed to prevent the 1954 flood under the current conditions. Through the construction of water projects operation integrated model, the whole process of 1954 flood is simulated and the simulation effect is analyzed. The results show that based on the proposed joint operation strategy of water conservancy projects in the upper and middle reaches of Changjiang River, the total flood storage volume is 22.8 billion m3, and the water level of the main control stations is basically effectively controlled near or below the target water level, a good practical test has been achieved in dealing with the flood simulation operation in 1954.This strategy can provide reference for the joint operation of reservoir groups and flood storage and detention areas in the Changjiang River Basin.

Key words: joint operation of water projects; flood storage and detention area; flood in 1954; reservoir groups in Changjiang River Basin; simulated dispatch of flood control;