关键词: 区域洪水频率分析, 线性回归, 支持向量机回归, 无资料地区

Abstract: Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) is an important method to estimate the design flood of ungauged site. The empirical method and index flood method are commonly used in past RFFA study. With the development of applied mathematics and artificial intelligence technology, more and more nonlinear models are gradually applied in this domain. Given the condition, a method based on support vector machine regression (SVR) is proposed to analyze the regional flood frequency in the Xiangjiang River basin, and the calculated results are compared with those of the traditional regression method. The results show that compared with the traditional index flood method, the SVR algorithm could make a more robust estimation of the design flood in the ungauged area based on a smaller sample size, which provides a new way to estimate the design flood in the ungauged area.

Key words: regional flood frequency analysis, linear regression, support vector regression, ungauged basin