关键词: 水资源管理, 水均衡分析, 分布式水文模型, MIKE SHE, 华北平原

Abstract: Since the 1980s, the overexploitation of ground water in the North China Plain (NCP) has caused fast groundwater level decline. In the past several decades, most of the hydrological models only dealt with the groundwater component or simulated at local scales. A coupled surface water-ground water hydrological MIKE SHE model, including all the major hydrological cycle processes, has been developed for the NCP. The model was calibrated with the groundwater head observation data of 2000~2005 and then validated with the groundwater head observation data of 2006-2008. The analysis results of root mean square error (RMSE) (most values lie below 4 m) and correlation coefficient (R) (0.36~0.97) showed the model was effective. The water balance results indicate that approximately 70% of water loss the water system is attributed to the ET while approximately 29% is attributed to pumping. Sustainable water management analysis of the NCP is conducted using the simulation results. Recommendations, including reducing evapotranspiration, the relying on South-to-North Water Diversion Project, water-saving irrigation technologies and water quality protection, are given to the policy makers.

Key words: water resources management, water balance analysis, distributed hydrological model, MIKE SHE, North China Plain