关键词: 水资源承载力; PSR-MDS模型; 综合赋权法; 相似度结构分析; 河北省;

Abstract: Water resources carrying capacity is an important index to evaluate the sustainable development of a region.This paper determined 12 evaluation indices from three aspects of water resources carrying pressure(P),supporting capacity(S) and regulation capacity(R) by following the principles of reflecting the essence of water resources carrying capacity, being sensitive to changes in water resources carrying capacity and reducing duplication.Then, according to the principle of minimum sum of squares of deviations, the particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to find the optimal combination coefficient, and the factor analysis and entropy method were combined to comprehensively determine the weight of each indices.And the PSR-MDS water resources carrying capacity evaluation model was constructed through the similarity structure analysis(MDS) of the comprehensive score to divide objectively the carrying capacity levels.Finally, the model was applied to the study of water resources carrying capacity in Hebei Province.The research results can provide reference for similar case studies.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity; PSR-MDS model; comprehensive weighting method; similarity structure analysis; Hebei Province;