关键词: 流域超标准洪水; 致灾机理; 监测预报预警; 风险评估与调控; 综合应急措施; 决策支持系统;

Abstract: The difficulty and complexity of response to over-standard basin flood are high and rare in the world, especially under the impacts from changing environment such as climate change and human activity.In the management of over-standard basin flood, it faces major challenges such as the re-cognition of changed hydrological laws, the urgent needs for improvement in technology and integrated regulation of engineering measures etc.At present, the gap between research results and practical requirements remains large.In order to improve the current urgent demands for comprehensively responding to over-standard basin flood, a research framework is developed to deal with over-standard basin flood caused by extreme weather conditions and system.The framework tends to integrate multidisciplinary theory and cutting-edge technology, which involves theoretical study and experimental analysis, using physical models and numerical models, to develop a set of technologies and decision support system with demonstrations.The research framework is composed of six aspects, including: evolution law of the extremely hydrological and meteorological events and the disaster mechanism of the over-standard basin flood under the changing environments, the multidimensional monitoring, forecasting and early warning of basin storm and flood, the dynamic disaster assessment, the regulation and risk mitigation, integrated emergency response measures, and decision support system with integration and demonstration applications.The aim is to solve the difficult problem of the know-how regarding hydrological laws and disaster-caused mechanism of the over-standard basin flood under the major impacts of climate change and human activities, and to construct a theoretical system of risk management for over-standard basin flood.It is expected to break through the key technical bottlenecks in dealing with over-standard flood management, focusing on water monitoring, flood forecasting and early warning, disaster assessment, risk mitigation, emergency response, and decision support technology.A full circle of technical system and a set of solutions of comprehensive response to over-standard basin floods shall be developed.In addition, a multi-scenario collaborative over-standard flood dispatch decision support system with strong adaptability, involving intelligent regulation of multiple engineering measures such as reservoirs and retention basins etc.,shall be as well developed.Demonstration and application will be made on three different large rivers in China to improve the level of response to watershed over-standard floods and ensure national flood control safety.

Key words: over-standard basin flood; disaster causing mechanism; flood monitoring,forecast and early warning; flood risk assessment and mitigation; comprehensive emergency measures; decision support system;