关键词: 未确知测度;集对分析(SPA);岩溶隧道;水害;危险性评价;组合赋权法;

Abstract: Scientific and reasonable water disaster classified evaluation and formulating preventive measures have become the primary problem to be solved urgently in the construction and operation of karst tunnels.14 indices such as topography, vegetation coverage, rainfall and average temperature are selected as the criterion of water disaster in karst tunnel during operation period.On the basis of the unascertained measurement theory, the subjective and objective combined weights method of hierarchical analysis(AHP)-entropy weight(EW),and the set-pair analysis method, a new unascertained measurement-set pair analysis coupled water disaster classification system of karst tunnel is established.At last, the risk assessment of water disaster in 6 operating karst tunnels are compared with the unascertained measurement model, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and the actual situation.The results show that the evaluation results are basically consistent with other evaluation models or tending to be conservative, which is consistent with the actual situation of the tunnel.The evaluation system of the coupling of multilevel unascertained measurement-set pair analysis can provide a reference for the prediction and prevention of karst tunnel water disaster in China.

Key words: unascertained measurement theory; set pair analysis(SPA); karst tunnels; water disaster; risk assessment; combined weights method;