关键词: 气温;降水;SSPs;时空变化;CMIP6模式;乌江流域;

Abstract: In order to explore the spatio-temporal changes of temperature and precipitation in the Wujiang River Basin in the future，based on the daily meteorological grid data in China from 1961 to 2014，outputs of Global Climate Models （GCM） with complete SSPs scenarios （SSP1-1.9，SSP1-2.6，SSP4-3.4，SSP2-4.5，SSP4-6.0，SSP3-7.0，SSP5-8.5） from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 were downscaled and bias corrected.On the basis of evaluating the simulation ability of regional temperature and precipitation by GCMs，the changes of the temperature and precipitation in the Wujiang River Basin in the near-（2021-2040），mid-（2041-2060） and long-（2081-2100） term of the 21st century were projected.The results show that for temperature，overall the annual mean temperature and seasonal mean temperature in the Wujiang River Basin are projected to show upward trends for 2021-2100.Relative to the baseline period （1995-2014），the annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 1 ℃ in the near-term under all scenarios，whereas，it reaches the lowest by 1.4 ℃ and 1.3 ℃ in the mid-and long-term period under SSP1-1.9，reaches the highest by 2.3 ℃ and 4.6 ℃ in the mid-and long-term period under SSP5-8.5.Seasonally，the increase of temperature in the summer season is expected to be the lowest，while it is the largest in autumn.In the spatial aspect，both annual and seasonal mean temperatures are inclined to increase gradually from the upstream to the downstream of the basin.For precipitation，overall the annual and seasonal precipitation in the Wujiang River Basin are also anticipated to show upward trends for 2021-2100.Relative to the baseline period （1995-2014），percentage change of annual precipitation is prospective to be the lowest in the near-term and the largest in the long-term period for all the scenarios.On the seasonal scale，percentage change of precipitation in the summer and autumn seasons are the smallest，while it is the largest in winter.Spatially，percentage change of precipitation in spring and winter are intended to increase gradually from the upstream to the downstream of the basin，although it is the opposite in the autumn season；both of the annual and summer precipitations show the largest change rate in the midstream region.The research results can provide scientific basis for watershed to cope with climate change and contribute to water resources management and socio-economic development planning.

Key words: temperature；precipitation；SSPs；spatio-temporal change；CMIP6 mode；Wujiang River Basin