关键词: 气候变化, 人类活动, 入海径流量, 降水量, 用水量, 调水量, 长江

Abstract: Based on the data of precipitation, total surface water resources, runoff into the sea as well as domestic, industrial and agricultural water consumption in the Yangtze River Basin in recent 20 years, this paper analyzes and discusses the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff variation of the Yangtze River into the sea. The results show that the precipitation is the key controlling factor to the runoff of the Yangtze River into the sea. Although the total water consumption for people's livelihood,?industry and agriculture in the basin has been increasing, the annual net water consumption remains unchanged. So the water consumption increase does not impact the runoff into the sea. The reservoir impoundment changes the temporal and spatial variation of water resources but has no obvious positive or negative effect on the final runoff into the sea. However, the trans-basin water diversion in the basin will change the runoff into the sea to some extent whose impact will increase with the increase of diversion water in the future.

Key words: climate change, human activities, runoff into the sea, precipitation, water consumption；water diversion amount, Yangtze River