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基于改进SD的区域水土资源联合配置研究

童芳,金菊良, 董增川   

  • 出版日期:2017-07-14 发布日期:2017-07-14

Study on regional joint allocation of water and land resources based on improved system dynamics model

TONG Fang,JIN Juliang,DONG Zengchuan   

  • Online:2017-07-14 Published:2017-07-14

摘要: 将区域水土资源联合配置的多学科综合与新技术的应用成果相结合,以水土资源联合配置的体系为基础,定量刻化了水资源、土地资源配置系统与社会、经济、环境发展之间的互动影响关系,将包括需水、供水、土地需求及供给和生态环境影响等相关的水资源、土地资源联合配置的要素,与社会、经济、环境系统耦合成一个复杂的水资源-土地资源-社会经济-生态模拟系统,利用基于图论改进的流率基本入树的系统动力学(SD)规范建模方法,建立起了比较完整的区域水土资源优化配置的系统动力学流率基本入树模型。运用该模型,对位于苏南丘陵地区的句容市按照不同水土资源联合配置方案(情景)的水资源、土地资源与社会经济环境耦合系统进行模拟计算,该计算结果可为水资源、土地资源的联合统一管理提供基础支撑。

关键词: 系统动力学, 图论, 流率基本入树建模法, 水土资源联合配置, 句容市

Abstract: Aiming at of regional joint allocation of water and land resources, in the combination of multidisciplinary integration with the new technology application, and based on joint allocation system of water and land resources, the interactive relationship of allocation system of water resources and land with the development of society, economy, and environment was quantitatively described. This paper creates a complicated simulation system of water resources-land resources-social economy-ecology with the combination of the related elements of joint allocation of water resources and land resources(such as water demand, water supply, land demand and supply, and ecological environment impacts) and social, economic and environmental systems and establishes a comparable complete model of regional joint allocation of water and land resources using an improved rate-variable fundamental in-tree SD modeling based on graph theory. For Jurong, a city situated at hilly area in the South of Jiangsu Province, the coupled system of water resources, land resources and social and economic environment under various water resources and land resources allocations were simulated and analyzed. The results can provide basic support for the unified management of water and land resources.

Key words: system dynamics, graph theory, rate-variable fundamental in-tree modeling, joint allocation of water and land resources, Jurong City