关键词: 滑坡监测预警;累计变形;变形速率;M-K分析;木鱼包滑坡;三峡库区;

Abstract: In order to achieve the accurate classification of landslide early warning level, based on the analysis of early warning criteria, this paper takes the Muyubao landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, and constructs the landslide early warning model by combining the cumulative deformation criterion and the deformation rate criterion.The cumulative deformation criterion is based on the analysis of limit displacement early warning, and development trend of deformation prediction to classify the early warning level.The deformation rate criterion is similar to it, which is also based on the early warning analysis of the limit deformation rate and the development trend evaluation of its M-K analysis to classify the early warning level.The example analysis shows that in the early warning process of cumulative deformation criterion, the landslide early warning level is grade II according to the limit displacement judgment, but the landslide deformation is on the rise by deformation prediction, so the first warning level should be improved, that is, the landslide early warning level is grade Ⅲ by the cumulative deformation criterion.In the early warning process of deformation rate criterion, there are certain differences in the early warning results of different monitoring points, the early warning level is between grade Ⅰ and Ⅲ.According to the most unfavorable principle, the landslide early warning level under the deformation rate criterion is determined as grade Ⅲ.The analysis results are consistent with each other, which verifies the accuracy of the two types of criteria.Finally the landslide warning level is comprehensively determined as grade Ⅲ,that is, the landslide is currently in medium risk.It is necessary to carry out high frequency monitoring and prepare for avoidance measures to ensure the safety of life and property of residents in the area.

Key words: landslide monitoring and early warning; cumulative deformation; deformation rate; M-K analysis; Muyubao landslide; Three Gorges Reservoir area;