关键词: 障碍因子诊断, 障碍度模型, 熵权法, TOPSIS法, 综合评价, 水资源承载力, 江西省

Abstract: The shortage of water resources has caused the contradiction between water supply and demand in Jiangxi Province increasingly prominent. Water resources carrying capacity has become an important indicator to measure regional sustainable development. Taking water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province as the research object, eight indexes were selected, i.e. per capita water resources, ecological environment water consumption rate, water consumption rate, per capita GDP, water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP, water yielding modulus, water supply modulus and water resources utilization. Using data from 2006 to 2015, the entropy weight method, TOPSIS method and obstacle model were adopted to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi Province. The results show that the carrying capacity increased from 2006 to 2015, while, the growth rate slowed down; water resource is the most important factor restricting the improvement of water resources carrying capacity. In order to ensure the sustainable development of the social economy and use water more efficient, we should give full play to the carrying capacity of water resources, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and recommendations.

Key words: obstacle factors diagnosis, obstacle model, entropy weight method, TOPSIS method, comprehensive evaluation, water resources carrying capacity, Jiangxi Province