关键词: 生态足迹, 灰色神经网络模型, 水生态足迹预测, 水资源, 广西

Abstract: Assessment and trend prediction of water resources sustainable utilization is a hot issue. This paper uses ecological footprint method to calculate water resources ecological footprint, water resources ecological carrying capacity and water resources ecological surplus of Guangxi from1997 to 2014. On the basis of the calculation result, Grey Neural Network Model was used to dynamically simulate and predict the trend of 2015-2019. The results shows that: (1) from 1997 to 2014, the water resources ecological footprint and carrying capacity per capita in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region showed a downward trend, but the decline of the water resources ecological footprint was significantly less than that of the carrying capacity; the water resources had ecological surplus but an overall downward trend, which showed the water resources utilization was sustainable but gradually became unsustainable. (2) The water resources ecological footprint per capita from 2015~2019 will maintain at about 0.9~1.1 hm2, the trend will be upward and then downward; the water resources ecological carrying capacity per capita will remain around 1.8~2.3 hm2, and the fluctuation is obvious; the water resources ecological surplus per capita will be around 0.7~1.3 hm2, and the water resources utilization will still be in the state of sustainable development, but the space of sustainable development and utilization will significantly reduce compared with the previous years. (3) Compared with the common Grey Model, Grey Neural Network Model simulation accuracy has obvious advantages, strong interpolated fitting ability and good extrapolation forecast ability, which can be used to forecast and analyze the similar issues.

Key words: ecological footprint, Grey Neural Network Model, water resources footprint prediction, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region