关键词: 承载力动态评价, 水资源承载力, 微观变化趋势, 集对分析, 偏联系数

Abstract: Conventional evaluation methods can only yield macroscopic evaluation results, therefore we analyzed and constructed five-element connection number model and applied it to the dynamic evaluation and analysis of water resources carrying capacity for Sichuan Province. The results show that: ① Not only the five-element connection number and partial connection number can evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity, but also they can help explore the microscopic changes, the results are accurate and justifiable. ② On the macro level, the carrying capacity of water resources in Sichuan province is in an equilibrium state during the rating period, and it has the ability to support the current social and economic scale of Sichuan Province. ③ On the micro level, the connection degree of water resources carrying capacity is on the rise with small fluctuations in 2009, 2011 and 2015. ④ The carrying capacity of the subsystem from high to low are rated in order as water resource, social economy, ecological environment. In order to promote sustainable development and ecological civilization process in the New Era, controlling pollutant discharge and improving water use efficiency are the two major measures for improving water resources carrying capacity.

Key words: dynamic evaluation of carrying capacity, water resources carrying capacity, microscopic changes, Set Pair Analysis, partial connection number