关键词: 冬季气温, 气候变化, R/S分析法, M-K趋势检验法, 气温典型年, 寒潮同步性, 南水北调中线工程

Abstract: The winter temperature characteristics along the main channel of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project affect the water transportation dispatching process and the ice hazard prevention during the freezing period. Based on the daily temperature data from 1968-2017 of eight meteorological stations along the main channel, the variation trend and abrupt change of the average winter temperature were discussed by rescaled range analysis method and Mann-Kendall trend test method, and then the typical years of each station were divided by Warm Winter Grade, so the cold temperature synchronization standard was formulated. The results showed that: in the past 50 years, the winter temperature along the project had a significant warming trend; the 1990 s can be regarded as the time of abrupt winter temperature warming along the project area; the synchronization probability of strong cold year along the channel was about 8%, and about 43% for cold and warm winter synchronization;the number of continuous low temperature days in each station increased successively from south to north and all showed a decreasing trend. The winter temperature synchronization along the project is relatively large, so the characteristics and effects of winter temperature synchronization should be fully explored, on the one hand, to avoid the risk of safety management causes by insufficient ice condition prediction, and on the other hand, to improve the flexibility and efficiency of water transportation during freezing period.

Key words: winter temperature, climate variation, rescaled range analysis, Mann-Kendall trend test, temperature typical years, synchronization of cold temperature, Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project