关键词: 隧道涌水量, 组合预测, 漂移度, 解析法

Abstract: A number of analytical methods have been proposed to forecast tunnel gushing water so far. However, the forecast results are always inconsistent. In order to solve these problems, several analytical methods were combined by linear weighting according to the combination forecasting consideration. The drift degree was introduced to estimate the reliability for each analytical method with the reference of the general tendency of other methods based on a principle of minority being subordinate to the majority. Then a rational weight distribution method was applied to develop a combination model composed of multiple analytical methods. Taking a metro tunnel in Guangzhou as the research object, the single and combined predictions for tunnel gushing water were made based on four kinds of common analytical methods such as Jules Dupuit model. The results show that the rushing water calculated by proposed method matches the actual data, implying that the proposed method is reliable.

Key words: tunnel gushing water, combined forecasting, drift degree, analytical method